Since this year, with President Trump pushing "America first" and holding high the "banner" of trade protectionism, even if the global economy accelerates recovery, all circles are increasingly worried about the global trade situation caused by the proliferation of trade protectionism. The escalation of trade disputes worries enterprises that they are unable to formulate clear investment and development strategies while economic policies are still unpredictable. The challenge of multilateralism also raises questions about whether the momentum of economic globalization will be reversed.
In this context, on July 17, Japan and the European Union signed the economic partnership agreement (EPA), which is known as the largest FTA in the world so far. On July 19, Sang Baichuan, Dean of the Institute of International Economics of the University of International Business and Economics, doctoral supervisor and special expert of the Ministry of Commerce of China, interviewed by the Financial Times, said that the United States' unilateralism and trade protectionism have aroused the antipathy of China, Japan, the European Union and many countries around the world. China has always advocated free trade and economic globalization. Now, Japan and the European Union have proved their same position with China through practical actions. This is a powerful check and balance for the anti globalization trend that plagues the world economy, and a great advantage for maintaining trade liberalization and facilitation and promoting the development of economic globalization.
Help global economic development
According to the EPA, the EU has eliminated tariffs on about 99% of Japanese goods, and Japan has eliminated tariffs on about 94% of EU goods, including 82% of agricultural products and aquatic products, which will rise to 99% in the next few years. As the sum of EU and Japan's GDP accounts for about 30% of the global economy, with a total population of more than 600 million, its economic influence is not small.
Mr Sang said Trump's "US first" policy and even trade protectionism measures against its traditional allies had aroused their antipathy. The agreement reached between the EU and Japan is actually a concrete action to continue to promote economic globalization in view of "US priority". For the EU and Japan, with the conclusion of the economic and trade agreement, the tariff level between them will be greatly reduced, and trade liberalization and facilitation will be developed, which will significantly reduce the trade cost between Europe and Japan. The importers of the EU and Japan will pay lower import cost, which is conducive to boosting the confidence of investors and consumers of both sides, and promoting the EU and Japan Economic growth is of positive significance. As both Japan and the EU are important economies in the world, the development of free trade and the sustained recovery of their economies will certainly play a positive role in the growth of the world economy. As an important member of economic globalization, China will also benefit from this process.
He also said that looking at the world, the United States practised unilateralism and trade protectionism, which attracted the opposition of China, Japan, the European Union and many other countries. In order to maintain the multilateral economic and trade system and promote the development of economic globalization, many countries have also taken many countermeasures against the United States. In this context, the EU and Japan have reached an economic partnership agreement and built a free trade area, which is a powerful check and balance for the anti globalization trend that plagues the world economy, and a powerful impetus for maintaining trade liberalization and facilitation and promoting the development of economic globalization. On the whole, this will be a great advantage for the world economy.
The process of economic globalization is hard to reverse
Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, economic globalization has undergone profound changes. The growth of international trade has slowed down, and the development speed of financial internationalization has declined. In recent years, with the prevalence of populism in many countries, the voice of anti-globalization has increased.
Sang Baichuan said that when the United States moved towards unilateralism, multilateralism did encounter setbacks and challenges. However, the process of economic globalization after World War II has always been a "two leg" walk: "one leg" is to promote the multilateral and facilitation of trade and investment, and promote the development of international trade, investment and financial globalization under the multilateral system; "one leg" is the development of Regionalism - through the integration of regional economy and the establishment of free trade areas, relevant countries can reach an agreement within the region Only when the scale of regional trade is further expanded, its economic efficiency can be further demonstrated. Therefore, it can attract more countries to join in the negotiation of regional trade liberalization, and ultimately it is also conducive to the development of economic globalization.
"In recent years, there have been setbacks in promoting the globalization and facilitation of multilateral trade, so people will more choose to promote the liberalization and facilitation of trade through free trade agreements at the regional and bilateral levels." Sang Baichuan said that because of this, the free trade agreement reached between Japan and the European Union has important historical significance. For economic integration and globalization, this is a powerful promotion; for trade protectionism, it is also a strong counter system.
Professor Sang Baichuan also predicted that in addition to the EU and Japan, more regional cooperation agreements will emerge in the future. For example, there have been two kinds of disputes on brexit: hard brexit and soft brexit. But the latest news comes that British Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to the "soft brexit" plan, that is, after brexit, to maintain the relatively close economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU, to establish a single market and a free trade area between the UK and the EU. "Of course, not only Japan, the EU and the UK, but also China's efforts and role in promoting regional cooperation and economic globalization are remarkable." Before the international financial crisis, people experienced rapid growth in international finance, international trade and international direct investment, said Sang. After the financial crisis, the growth slowed down gradually. However, it is far from the time to talk about "De-globalization", and the tide of globalization is hard to reverse.
Original link: http://www.financialnews.com.cn/hq/yw/201807/t20180720_142449.html
